When is my car going to drive itself?

The concept of the autonomous vehicle is nothing new. In fact, the first such experiments with driverless vehicles date back to the 1920’s. In 1925, Houdina Radio Control Company, a radio equipment manufacturer, pioneered a driverless car named the American Wonder, which traveled down Broadway in New York City. (The demonstration ended abruptly when the American Wonder crashed into another car but still solid effort). Technically, the vehicle wasn’t entirely self-driving as it was operated via radio signal by a nearby technician, but regardless, engineers and inventors alike have been mulling over the notion of self-driving cars for nearly a century. So, where are they?

There’s levels to this…

To begin, the concept of a self-driving vehicle isn’t as simple as it sounds. According to The Society of Automotive Engineers, autonomous vehicles can be classified on a six-part scale ranging from Level 0 to Level 5. Level 0 encompasses completely manual operations. Level 1 through 3 incorporates increasingly more complex self-driving technology ranging from “driver support” features such as adaptive cruise control up through “conditional automation”, where a driver can completely disengage at times throughout the journey. Level 4 constitutes “high automation” where the car is fully autonomous but allows for the driver to take control if necessary, such as during poor weather or heavy traffic. Finally, Level 5 is fully autonomous and requires no human intervention whatsoever, regardless of traffic conditions.

Today, no manufacturer offers anything above Level 2, known as “partial automation”. Level 2 vehicles can accelerate, stop and steer on their own but still require an alert driver to handle the majority of the driving functions. Industry leaders in the Level 2 space include Tesla’s Autopilot, GM’s Super Cruise and Ford’s Blue Cruise, which all incorporate hands-free features. Mercedes-Benz is currently developing a Level 3 system, which it hopes to launch in 2024. So, for the time being, it seems like we aren’t close to a commercially available, fully self-driving, Level 5 autonomous vehicle.

It must be the government then, right?

Contrary to popular belief, regulations are shockingly not the hold up. On March 10th, 2022, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration passed legislation to eliminate the requirement that automated vehicle manufacturers equip vehicles with manual driving controls. This significantly reduces costs as manufacturers no longer need to offer vehicles with both self-driving and manual driving functionality.

Even at the state level, legislation promotes the advancement of AV technology. There are currently 27 states that have laws that allow for the deployment of autonomous vehicles. Another 13 states are in the process of researching and enacting laws regarding the technology, which means that only 10 states have not passed and are not currently researching laws related to self-driving cars.  Each state’s ruling is unique in that there are various stipulations such as laws regarding levels of automation or mandates requiring a human operator present in the vehicle, but it seems that states are largely receptive to autonomous vehicle technology. As of now, seven states allow for fully automated vehicles on the road without a human operator present.

So what gives?

Despite 100 years of rumination across the automotive industry, the technology still just isn’t viable. It is one thing to input simple GPS tech to get a car to traverse from point A to B, but it is a whole other story to be able to program the thousands of events that could transpire even during a short drive. Testing phases have shown that self-driving vehicles are still struggling whenever driving conditions are less than ideal. Most autonomous vehicles are still unable to adequately navigate construction zones, poor weather, traffic zones, animal encounters and crossing guards. In 2022, GM’s Cruise recalled all its AV testing in San Francisco after one of its’ vehicles failed to execute a simple left turn, resulting in a crash that injured two people.

There are an infinite amount of events that could occur while on the road and it is becoming increasingly apparent that it is impossible to program all of these potential outcomes into the AV technology. Advocates of self-driving vehicles claim that the technology should improve to handle abnormal circumstances through machine learning, but that would entail the use of human guinea pigs while the technology adapts. Imagine sitting in the backseat as your car swerves off the highway to avoid a balloon. In short, there hasn’t been a company that has been able to successfully create tech that can understand roadway situations the way a human can. Therefore, it seems like we are nowhere near an offering that allows for anything other than an alert passenger who is ready and able to take over. Computers are great at running calculations but still cannot compete when it comes to processing common roadway variables.

Investors are getting restless.

According to McKinsey & Co., roughly $206B has been invested in driverless technology since 2010, with relatively little to show for it and virtually zero dollars in revenue.  AV manufacturers have seen valuations plummet over the years as the goal posts for fully autonomous vehicle deployment continue to get extended. Waymo’s most recent funding valuation put the company at a $30B valuation, down over 80% from its $175B valuation in 2018. Aurora Innovation, an independent self-driving technology provider, saw its valuation drop 85% over the past year due to cash flow struggles.

However, investment dollars continue to pour into the technology from both investors and manufacturers alike. Between the manufacturers themselves, like GM’s Cruise or Tesla’s Autopilot, or technology giants looking to take a share of the market, like Google’s Waymo or Amazon’s Zoox, or third-party self-driving tech providers such as Mobileye, billions are being poured into the industry every year.

What about the consumers?

Despite the obvious implications, consumers generally are not interested in adopting fully autonomous vehicles. According to the S&P Global Mobility survey, consumers largely distrust the technology. Only 47% said they would consider riding in a self-driving car, let alone purchasing one. Consumers also aren’t fully convinced that AV’s are safe as only 48% of those surveyed considered AV’s to be safer than manual driving. Rather, consumers are more interested in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), which are add-on features that lessen the driving burden, such as autopilot or lane assist. These features ease car operability while allowing the driver to remain in control.  In short, most consumers do not currently have a strong need for fully self-functioning cars and are generally unwilling to pay for them.

The Key Takeaway

From what I have gathered, most industry experts do not expect a commercially available self-driving vehicle until the year 2030 at the earliest. Even Level Four functionality, which requires an alert human passenger, seems to be years off. Therefore, manufacturers and third-party tech providers alike should focus on a Level 3 conditional autonomous offering, which allows drivers to completely disengage periodically throughout the course of the journey. This entails increasing and improving upon ADAS features such as emergency braking, blind spot monitoring or night vision. There has been too much time and effort spent on self-driving vehicle technology to abandon the effort now, but until a company can figure out how to inculcate human instinct into the autonomous driving technology, consumers will have to wait.

-Brian Doyle

Sources:

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